Democrat midterm sweep shifts rate hike outlook as oil, growth, and fiscal policy remain uncertain

Democrats' sweeping victory in the U.S. midterms could curb global interest rate hikes next year, but oil prices, U.S. growth, and fiscal policy remain uncertain, market watchers said. Crude oil tumbled 8.7% Wednesday on expectations the result may push President Donald Trump toward ending the Iran war, easing energy costs that have driven inflation and rate hikes. Central banks, including the Fed and Bank of England, have raised rates recently. Traders see a slightly higher chance of monetary easing within a year, though oil has climbed back and a resolution is far from certain. Analysts note fiscal policy changes and AI investment slowdowns could impact the rate outlook into 2027.