Nomura warns Democratic midterm gains could curb US AI data centre growth from 2028

Nomura warned that Democratic gains in the November 4 US midterm elections could tighten regulation of data centre construction, posing a significant risk to the AI investment boom from 2028. The research firm said Democrats are on track for strong congressional majories, likely causing policy gridlock and enabling oversight that could constrain President Trump's agenda. It highlighted Texas and Georgia gubernatorial wins by Democrats who proposed moratoriums on new data centre permits, though near-term capital expenditure impact remains uncertain. Nomura noted most 2027 data centre capacity is already under construction, but the 2028 pipeline is more vulnerable to permitting delays. Tighter rules could cause project relocation rather than cancellation, while improved Democratic prospects for 2028 could shift fiscal risks toward greater spending commitments.