Tesla Stock Could Reach $5,000 by 2031, Says Cathie Wood's Ark Invest

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest released an updated valuation model projecting Tesla stock could reach $5,000 by 2031, implying roughly 1,233% upside from its current trading price of about $375. Ark's bull case assumes Tesla could become a $20.4 trillion company, requiring $1.62 trillion in annual revenue and a 65% EBITDA margin, a dramatic increase from the $95 billion revenue and 15.4% margin generated in 2025. The forecast heavily depends on Tesla's Robotaxi business, projected to account for 80% of enterprise value, with 10 million vehicles generating $900 billion in ride-hailing revenue by 2031. The analysis also includes 1.2 million Optimus robots producing $254 billion in revenue, plus $193 billion in energy storage sales, requiring $225 billion in cumulative AI capital expenditure. However, Tesla's current Robotaxi operations remain small, and Optimus is still speculative, making the stock a high-risk, long-term bet dependent on aggressive adoption and execution assumptions.