El Niño and climate change could make 2026 the hottest year on record

2026 is projected to become the hottest year on record, driven by El Niño and climate change, according to the Berkeley Earth research group. The forecast was announced as the COP31 UN climate conference opened Monday in Antalya, Turkey. Berkeley Earth states 95% confidence that 2026 will surpass the 2024 record, with the estimate made two months before year-end. The World Meteorological Organization predicts 2026 will rank among the four hottest years, noting an unusually strong El Niño will persist into 2027. The WMO says oceans are warmer than ever, releasing more heat, while rising carbon dioxide from fossil fuels remains the main driver. COP31 discussions include emissions cuts, adaptation to extreme weather, and a $85 billion climate finance goal for developing countries by 2035.