VIX spike to 28.2 may signal stock buying opportunity

Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, spiked 11 points to 28.2 on Thursday, its largest one-day jump since April 2025, but historical data suggests this volatility surge may signal a buying opportunity for stocks. Bespoke Investment Group found that in 19 similar instances since 1990 where the VIX rose at least five points from under 20, the S&P 500's median return was 4.2% three months later and 4.8% six months later, with positive returns occurring 68% and 79% of the time, respectively. However, near-term risks remain, as the average one-month return was negative 0.4% due to occasional downdrafts. Thursday's selloff was severe, with the Nasdaq 100 posting its worst day since March 2020 and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF trading below its net asset value. Options traders remained bearish into the close, with $1.5 billion of the $1.7 billion total premium in puts.