US fuel prices: Ukraine strikes and Mideast war impact

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have cut Moscow's diesel exports by 80% year-on-year in Q3 2026, contributing to global fuel shortages, but analysts say the US-Iran war remains the primary driver of surging US fuel prices ahead of November midterm elections. President Donald Trump has blamed Ukrainian strikes for record US diesel prices of $6.53 per gallon, while Kyiv's attacks explain about one-third of the global diesel shortfall of 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day. Gulf energy exports have plunged since US-Israeli strikes on Iran led Tehran to choke off the Strait of Hormuz. Moscow has banned diesel exports until late October, and Trump has agreed to lift sanctions to allow Russian diesel imports. Analysts say short-term price relief is unlikely, as infrastructure repairs take time and Middle East hostilities continue to pressure markets.