Intel Q3 Earnings Preview: Foundry Revenue 95% Internal, Can It Beat High Bar?

Intel is set to report its third-quarter earnings after the US market closes on October 29, with investors focused on whether revenue and earnings per share can beat expectations and on the progress of its foundry business turnaround. Analysts note that while Intel's foundry revenue grew 31% year-over-year to $5.8 billion in Q2, about 95% came from internal transactions, with external customer revenue at only $293 million. The segment still posted a $2.1 billion loss, and the company's Q3 guidance of $16.3 billion in revenue and $0.38 EPS falls below market consensus estimates. Intel's data center and AI division grew 59% to $6.3 billion in Q2, but roughly 84% of its operating profit was offset by foundry losses. Key metrics to watch include whether gross margin reaches the 42% forecast, external foundry revenue growth, and Q4 guidance, with the 14A process not expected to enter high-volume production until 2028.