Oil futures stay high despite Middle East export recovery

Oil futures remain elevated despite a recovery in Middle East exports because a large risk premium persists, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank noted Gulf exports have returned to 2025 average levels, yet prices stay high. Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby reported Gulf exports, including dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day last week, matching the 2025 average. September exports doubled, driven by higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with Saudi exports rising to 11.6 million barrels per day. The bank attributes the premium to downside supply risks from escalation threatening long-term production and record-low global inventories, prompting a desire to rebuild stocks. Goldman expects Brent to fall to $85 per barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027.