Analysts raise 2026 oil forecasts on Gulf export disruptions

Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts, with Brent crude expected to average nearly $90 a barrel due to prolonged disruption of Gulf exports, which is offsetting concerns about weak demand growth. A September survey of 30 economists projects Brent at $89.05 and U.S. crude at $83.90 for the year. The market increasingly believes a full restoration of exports through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely in the near term, leaving inventories to absorb the supply shortfall. Analysts cite significant upside risks if conflict escalates, with HSBC assuming a "structurally impaired" Hormuz and slow recovery of liquids flows from pre-conflict levels of 19-20 million barrels per day. Chinese inventories are a key uncertainty, as the world's largest importer has drawn on stockpiles but is expected to strengthen buying through winter. Most analysts view supply risks as the primary price driver, expecting substantial inventory declines in 2026 and a market surplus by 2027 as conditions improve.