Crude Oil Faces Uncertain October as Supply Recovery Meets Geopolitical Risk

Crude oil markets face an uncertain October as recovering supply meets persistent geopolitical risk, with Brent set to close September up roughly 14% after touching $109.97 before retreating to around $103. Physical supply has improved, with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restored to about half capacity and Middle East exports rebounding to 16.3 million barrels per day, the highest since late February. However, diplomatic tensions remain, as US-Iran negotiations stalled and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at its lowest level since 1982. The December Brent contract, now the front month, trades near $96, with potential moves toward $93-94 if supply normalizes or above $100 if Iranian escalation occurs. MCX Crude Oil shows a cautious-to-bearish setup, with support at ₹8,580-8,600 and resistance at ₹8,940.