CoreWeave faces 54% default odds as funding costs outpace rental yields

CoreWeave, Inc. received a Sell rating as its funding costs now exceed rental yields, with credit markets pricing a 54% probability of default on its debt. The company's 9.625% senior notes due 2032 fell to roughly 79 cents on the dollar, yielding over 15%, reflecting severe investor skepticism about its AI infrastructure business model. CoreWeave's stock dropped 16% on October 14th, followed by another 6% decline after hours. At current prices, CoreWeave equity functions as a leveraged call option on both credit market recovery and sustained AI shortages, leaving shareholders exposed to significant downside as debt outpaces asset returns.