Ukrainian strikes in Black Sea cut Russian grain exports by 1.6 times

Russian grain exports fell 1.6 times in the first quarter of the 2026/27 agricultural year (July-September), according to ProZerno CEO Vladimir Petrichenko. Russia exported about 8.5 million tons versus 14 million tons in the same period last year. Ukrainian strikes in the Black Sea disrupted key transshipment facilities, especially in Novorossiysk. Iran became the top buyer at 17.2%, followed by Egypt at 15.4% and Azerbaijan at 6%, while Turkey's share collapsed to just 2%. Wheat exports dropped to 4.8 million tons from 10.6 million tons year-on-year. Petrichenko forecasts total grain exports of 39-45 million tons for 2026/27, down from an export potential of 59 million tons. He projects the harvest at 134.8 million tons, compared to 141.2 million tons in 2025. Ukraine's foreign intelligence service previously reported similar logistics-driven declines.