Global wheat prices soar as Black Sea war disrupts shipments

Global wheat buyers face significantly higher costs as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt Black Sea grain shipments, with benchmark Chicago futures up 40% from June lows to a three-and-a-half-year high. Importers in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are struggling to secure supplies as attacks on vessels and ports have nearly halted cargo movements since July. Russian wheat exports are projected to fall to about 1 million tons in September from 5 million tons last year, while Ukraine's shipments are expected to halve. Indonesia has received only 60,000 tons from the Black Sea this month, down from 500,000 tons last September, prompting millers to pay 20-25% more for Australian wheat. Egypt's imports dropped to 143,870 tons in early September from 876,139 tons a year ago. Some buyers have supplies lasting until November or year-end, while Southern Hemisphere harvests may ease competition later. Egyptian mills are operating at 30% capacity, waiting for potential price drops of up to 20% if Black Sea shipping resumes.