ISW explains Kremlin's choice of Kostiantynivka for humanitarian mission

The Kremlin is insisting on a humanitarian ceasefire in Kostiantynivka to allow Russian forces to strengthen their positions on a key front, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts say this would help Russia reinforce the southern flank of Ukraine's "fortress belt." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated Ukraine proposed seven to eight occupied settlements for a truce, but Moscow rejected these options. ISW analysts believe Russia's proposal aims to present a false picture of the frontline, while using the pause to accumulate forces and resources, similar to the previous ceasefire in Oleshky. Russian attacks on the Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka axes account for 80% of all offensive activity against the "fortress belt" since October 2026. A truce could allow Russia to safely move heavy equipment closer to the front line without fear of Ukrainian drone strikes.