ISW explains why Kremlin chose Kostiantynivka for its next 'humanitarian mission'

The Kremlin's proposed local ceasefire in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, is aimed at reinforcing Russia's southern flank of the "fortress belt" to enable renewed attempts to capture the city and Dobropillya, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report for November 14. Analysts say the ceasefire proposal is part of efforts to make the US believe Moscow's fabricated version of frontline situation, while Russian forces would use the pause to accumulate troops and resources in the area. The ceasefire would likely extend to adjacent areas due to mixed positions and long-range drone capabilities. Despite Russian claims of controlling Kostiantynivka since July 2026, troops have failed to consolidate positions, and Dobropillya remains uncaptured. Ukrainian President Zelensky called the "humanitarian operation" a primitive move to seize the city and open the road to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, noting Russia previously used similar tactics in Oleshky.