Climate Action Tracker: Five Years of Inaction Put World on Path to 2.7°C Warming

The world is on track for catastrophic warming of +2.7°C by 2100 due to five years of stalled climate action, according to a new Climate Action Tracker (CAT) assessment released Thursday at COP31 in Antalya. The CAT warns of "irreversible overshoot" of the +1.5°C threshold unless governments rapidly cut emissions and abandon fossil fuel support. The forecast slightly worsened from +2.6°C in 2025, partly due to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and matches the 2021 projection, indicating global policy stagnation. Long-term warming will exceed +1.5°C around 2030, but Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare urged against defeatism, emphasizing accelerated action. CAT projections vary by scenario: +2.6°C with 2030/2035 national targets, +2.1°C with long-term goals, and +1.9°C in the most optimistic case.