Central Bank Decisions and Big Tech Earnings Test Market Resilience

Global markets enter a critical week with central bank decisions and corporate earnings in focus, as bond yields fall and equities struggle amid concerns about growth and AI spending returns. US Treasuries rallied for a second week, pushing 10-year yields to 5% and 30-year to 5.33%, while Brent crude rose 7% to near March peaks. Investors are now punishing companies that beat earnings estimates, with 78% of S&P 500 firms exceeding Q2 expectations setting a high bar for Q3 results. Five major central banks meet this week, including the Fed, ECB, and BoJ, alongside Australian inflation data and earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. Markets price a 60% chance of an RBA hike on November 3, while the RBNZ is fully expected to raise rates to 3.0%.