Ambev stock plunges 17.9% after Lula wins Brazil election

Ambev SA ADR shares plunged 17.9% in pre-market trading to $2.71 following Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's surprise victory in Brazil's presidential runoff election on Sunday, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 52% to 48%. Markets had priced in a Bolsonaro win, and the reversal triggered a broad sell-off in Brazilian assets. Brazilian real futures plunged about 10% overnight to approximately R$5.56 per dollar, directly compressing the dollar value of Ambev's Brazilian-denominated revenues, while a Tokyo-listed Brazil ETF fell nearly 15%. The decline was Brazil-specific, as U.S. equities were modestly positive, and it hit Brazilian banks and energy ADRs indiscriminately. Goldman Sachs outlined a stress scenario of a 10% real weakening, a 200-basis-point yield surge, and a 15% equity decline, with Ambev's Q3 2026 earnings due October 29 adding to the pressure.