Victoria forecasted for unexpected population growth surge

Victoria is expected to experience a population boom in the coming years. This shift is surprising because fewer people are now moving to Queensland and Western Australia from other states. In 2024, Melbourne saw a decrease in house prices while other cities experienced significant increases. Although Victoria has the second-largest population in Australia, its housing market is only the fourth most expensive. This is behind Brisbane and Canberra. New forecasts indicate that Victoria will see a rise in net interstate migration. About 2,800 new residents are expected to arrive in 2025-26, increasing to 3,700 in 2026-27. Meanwhile, migration to Queensland is slowing down, with numbers dropping from 23,200 to 20,400. Western Australia is also expected to see a sharp decline in new arrivals. Other states are experiencing changes as well. South Australia’s outflow is growing, while New South Wales may see a slowdown in people leaving. Tasmania is projected to gain new residents instead of losing them, and the Australian Capital Territory is also expected to see an increase in population. In terms of federal funding, the government is set to raise $99.3 billion in revenue from the GST for 2025-26. Victoria will receive the largest share of this funding, 27.5% or about $26.1 billion, even though its population is smaller than New South Wales.