US diesel export ban could cut diesel prices but raise gasoline costs

A potential US restriction on diesel exports could initially lower domestic diesel prices but may ultimately cause gasoline prices to rise, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank warns sustained export limits could significantly elevate retail gasoline costs. Goldman Sachs modeled a possible ban starting in early October and lasting through December, estimating weekly diesel price drops of about $0.25 per gallon while storage remains available. However, once storage fills within 9-10 weeks, refiners could cut production, adding roughly $0.30 per gallon upward pressure on gasoline prices weekly. European diesel prices could rise nearly 2% weekly under the ban, though strategic reserve releases might offset half the increase. Even after restrictions end, global refined-product prices could stay higher due to reduced US refinery output.