Ukraine strikes hit half of Russia's gasoline capacity in two weeks

Ukraine has attacked half of Russia's gasoline production capacity within two weeks, potentially creating a "fundamentally new reality for the functioning of the Russian economy," according to Sergei Vakulenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center. Vakulenko said strikes on refineries in Omsk and Volgograd have targeted facilities producing about 55% of Russia's commercial gasoline, with a similar share of domestic supply. He noted that November demand is roughly 5% lower than July, and October stockpiles may cover about a week of consumption, but recovery speed remains uncertain. The analyst warned that further strikes on Nizhnekamsk, Perm, and Tyumen could push the attacked share to two-thirds of domestic supply, or nearly three-quarters if Moscow is included. He suggested the government might need to impose severe restrictions on private gasoline consumption, drawing parallels to April 2020 COVID-era usage levels of about 30% of normal.