Trade uncertainty and tariffs may hinder global growth

The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that global goods trade is expected to grow in early 2025, despite increased trade policy uncertainty and new tariffs. North American imports and Asian exports have exceeded expectations, while European trade remains weak. The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer indicates steady trade in late 2024, with a 3.3% year-on-year recovery from the previous slump. However, new tariffs announced by the U.S. against countries like China and Canada have led to retaliatory measures. The report suggests that rising trade policy uncertainty may have temporarily boosted trade as businesses prepare for potential tariffs. The WTO advises caution in interpreting the barometer index due to possible reduced demand later in the year.