Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation faces a new risk: a future without Jensen Huang

Nvidia faces a new risk to its near-$5 trillion market value: the potential departure of founder and CEO Jensen Huang amid an investigation into whether he disclosed corporate or state secrets to a woman linked to a foreign intelligence operation. The uncertainty has triggered a stock selloff, though shares recovered over 4% on Wednesday. Analysts are increasingly weighing a leadership change, with Baird downgrading Nvidia to Neutral and cutting its price target to $200 from $500, citing risks including possible US export controls and Huang's unclear tenure. Dan Ives estimated a 15% chance Huang is removed, which could reduce the company's value by 25-30%. Nvidia has delivered over 700,000% cumulative stock returns under Huang. Huang's departure would be particularly challenging due to his flat management structure with about 60 direct reports and no publicly identified successor. The company faces broader AI spending concerns, with Gartner warning that over $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure investments could face writedowns by 2030. Nvidia's forward P/E has fallen to near 13 times, its lowest since 2013.