La Nina threatens Argentina's crop yield potential despite high soybean plantings

Argentina's recent rainfall raised hopes for better crop yields, but the La Nina weather pattern poses a risk. La Nina often brings dry conditions during the summer growing season, which could affect soybean and corn production. Forecasts show a 72% chance of La Nina conditions persisting through February, though computer models suggest only a 50% likelihood. Historically, La Nina has led to below-average yields for both crops, with only two out of nine instances resulting in good soybean harvests. Despite challenges, Argentina's soybean plantings are expected to reach an eight-year high for 2024-25. Even average yields could enhance global competition, while U.S. exporters may face pressure from Argentina's potential crop output.