Kotak expects India's GDP to grow 6% in FY26

Kotak Securities lowered its FY26 GDP growth estimate for India to 6% from a previous 6.5%. The revision is attributed to an anticipated global demand slowdown due to trade tensions, specifically citing the US President's tariff strategy. This slowdown is expected to negatively impact Indian exports, corporate profits, and the investment cycle. They expect a merchandise export decline of around 8%. Kotak also forecasts a wider current account deficit and anticipates the Indian rupee to trade within a range of 84.5 to 88 against the US dollar in FY26. They expect the RBI to limit any significant rupee appreciation.