How Ukraine Can Be Protected Without NATO Membership

Negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the US in Abu Dhabi this week are unlikely to produce a decisive end to the war, as Russia continues striking Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine hits Russian refineries. A limited ceasefire is possible, but a comprehensive settlement appears distant. The Trump administration is pushing for a broad deal that could include economic reintegration and a new European security architecture addressing Russian concerns. Since NATO membership for Ukraine is a red line for Putin, alternative security guarantees are being considered, including a new organization independent of NATO. This proposed framework would allow Western troops to operate in Ukraine for defensive purposes only, such as manning air defense systems, without establishing permanent bases. It would also include UN and OSCE observers along the border, while requiring Ukraine to forgo NATO membership and Russia to abandon territorial aggression.