Global natural gas market faces oversupply from 2026

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is projected to significantly exceed demand starting in 2026, potentially leading to prices not seen since before the Ukraine war. This oversupply is driven by major production expansions in the US and Qatar, while unexpectedly reduced demand from China, due to increased domestic production and a new pipeline deal with Russia, exacerbates the imbalance. Despite potential short-term price support in Europe due to low winter inventories, a sustained period of low prices is anticipated from late 2026, which could reshape the global energy landscape by accelerating the shift from coal to gas.