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Global economy faces challenges akin to 1930s, IMF adjusts forecasts

The Guardian — April 21, 2024, 11:00 AM UTC

Summary: The 2020s are proving to be challenging for the global economy, resembling the difficulties of the 1930s. The IMF slightly raised its global growth forecast, noting less severe scarring from the pandemic. Concerns over potential conflicts in the Middle East loom. Inflation pressures are causing central banks like the US and UK to reconsider interest rate cuts. The IMF also revised up Russia's growth forecast. Globalization is shifting towards protectionism.

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Article metrics
Significance5.6
Scale8.0
Magnitude7.0
Potential7.5
Novelty6.0
Actionability4.0
Immediacy8.5
Positivity5.5
Credibility9.0

Timeline:

  1. [2.6]
    Nagel supports ECB rate cut if inflation returns to 2% (CNBC)
    12d
    Summary:Source
  2. [4.5]
    ECB notes progress in battling inflation, may reduce rates (European Central Bank)
    13d
    Summary:Source
  3. [4.4]
    Lagarde optimistic about global economy recovery, IMF projects 3.2% growth (Financial Times)
    16d
    Summary:Source
  4. [3.9]
    ECB likely to cut interest rates in June meeting (CNBC)
    17d
    Summary:Source
  5. [4.0]
    ECB President Lagarde discusses economic growth, inflation trends (European Central Bank)
    17d
    Summary:Source
  6. [5.0]
    Villeroy suggests cutting rates to address inflation concerns promptly (CNBC)
    18d

    ScoresSource
  7. [4.9]
    Likelihood of ECB rate cut in June increases (CNBC)
    18d
    Summary:Source
  8. [4.4]
    Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten rate cut (CNBC)
    19d
    Summary:Source
  9. [4.5]
    IMF predicts minimal global recession risk, raises growth outlook (CNBC)
    19d
    Summary:Source
  10. [5.0]
    ECB plans rate cuts pending major shocks, monitoring oil (CNBC)
    20d

    ScoresSource
  11. [3.0]
    ECB maintains 4% rate, plans cuts in June (Financial Times)
    24d
    Summary:Source
  12. [3.0]
    ECB holds rates at 4%, hints at future cut (Financial Times)
    25d
    Summary:Source
  13. [4.1]
    ECB hints at possible rate cut in June (CNBC)
    25d
    Summary:Source
  14. [3.6]
    DeAnne Julius predicts Fed will cut rates before ECB (CNBC)
    25d
    Summary:Source
  15. [4.8]
    Jerome Powell addresses rising supercore inflation exceeding 2% (CNBC)
    25d
    Summary:Source
  16. [4.1]
    Fed cautious about inflation, plans rate cut in 2024 (CNBC)
    26d
    Summary:Source