AGI predictions now suggest possible arrival by 2026

A new analysis suggests that artificial general intelligence (AGI) could arrive as early as 2026, significantly earlier than previous estimates, which predicted AGI by 2040 or later. This analysis reviewed over 8,600 expert predictions from 2009 to 2023. The study indicates a 50% chance of achieving human-level intelligence in machines between 2040 and 2061. Recent surveys show a trend toward earlier expectations, with some experts believing AGI could be realized by 2026. While advancements in AI technology, such as large language models, support these predictions, some scientists argue that more breakthroughs are needed. They caution against assuming current AI approaches can achieve human-level intelligence.