What If Congress Pulls Support? Decoding Assembly Seat Math of CM Vijay's Government

The Congress party is threatening to withdraw its support from the Tamil Nadu government led by Chief Minister Vijay, following his dismissal of their leaders, potentially destabilizing the ruling coalition ahead of the 2029 national elections. The state assembly currently has 227 members, with a majority mark of 114. The ruling alliance holds 120 seats, including 107 from Vijay's party and 13 from supporting parties like Congress, VCK, and left parties. If Congress withdraws its 5 MLAs, the alliance would still hold 115 seats, maintaining a majority. The government would only face a minority situation if all supporting parties, including VCK and left parties, withdrew simultaneously, leaving Vijay with 107 seats. However, political analysts note that opposition parties are fragmented, making an immediate government collapse unlikely, and upcoming by-elections could further strengthen Vijay's position.