UBS sees AI capex hitting $1tn in 2026, $1.4tn by 2027

UBS now expects artificial intelligence capital expenditure to reach nearly $1 trillion in 2026 and around $1.4 trillion in 2027, driven primarily by surging memory costs. The bank projects total AI capex of $998 billion this year, nearly double the $506 billion recorded in 2025. Memory spending is forecast to climb from $71 billion in 2025 to $367 billion this year and $923 billion in 2027, accounting for about 60% of the increase in AI capex this year. Other AI-related costs are estimated at $631 billion in 2026 before declining to $525 billion next year, meaning memory will represent roughly 90% of the nearly $1 trillion rise between 2025 and 2027. The shift changes the composition of AI investment, with memory's share rising from 14% of total capex in 2025 to an estimated 64% in 2027. UBS noted that price-driven increases would add little to real U.S. GDP, instead transferring income and profits toward memory producers in Asia.