Select California earthquake forecast models pass 11-year test

A rigorous 11-year test of 27 California earthquake forecasting models found select operational models statistically consistent with observed quakes, supporting their use in public warnings. Between August 2007 and August 2018, the models produced 51,625 next-day forecasts for magnitude 3.95+ earthquakes. Of 597 observed quakes, roughly 95%, two-thirds, and 95% of models matched counts, locations, and magnitudes respectively. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability ran the multi-institutional project. The authors offer detailed recommendations, software tools, and benchmarking data to support operational earthquake forecasting worldwide.