Russia's Seven Winter Targets in Ukraine: Analysts Detail Monthly Plans

Russia has planned a multi-target winter campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, aiming to weaken the economy, pressure Western allies, and leverage negotiations. Analysts from Ukraine Facility Platform outlined seven key Kremlin objectives in a report titled "Fifth Winter: A Race for Speed." The campaign seeks to trigger refugee waves, destabilize internal politics, and force Ukraine to divert resources from the front lines. Russia also intends to test new tactics, disrupt business and tax revenues, and use strikes as blackmail for territorial concessions or sanctions relief. The attacks are timed around key international events, including US elections and EU summits. The report predicts shifting priorities by month, from psychological pressure in October to peak strikes on heating and power systems in January 2027. February would focus on exhausting Ukraine's air defense reserves and economic resources ahead of the war's fifth anniversary.