Rothschild Redburn Downgrades Moderna on Valuation Concerns

Rothschild Redburn has downgraded Moderna's stock from Neutral to Sell, raising its price target from $40 to $81, citing valuation concerns despite positive clinical trial results. The downgrade follows strong phase 3 trial data announced on August 19, 2026. Moderna and Merck reported that intismeran autogene plus Keytruda showed statistically significant improvements in recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival versus Keytruda alone in patients with fully resected stage IIB-IV melanoma. The stock has surged 527% over the past year to $150.81, with a market capitalization of $60.21 billion, trading at 8.91 times book value. Analyst Simon Baker noted the post-announcement price reaction implies near-universal use for tumor types with little or no data, which he struggles to reconcile with available clinical evidence. Moderna has received several analyst upgrades recently, including from Argus, Wolfe Research, and BofA Securities, and announced a $2 billion private placement of convertible senior notes due 2032.