Romanian inflation may reach 5.5% due to the US-Iran conflict and rising oil prices

Escalation of the US-Iran conflict could push Romanian inflation to 5-5.5% by year-end, significantly exceeding the 3.9-4% target. This inflation surge is primarily driven by rising oil prices, which have a more than double impact on consumer spending compared to gas prices. The duration of the conflict is the key variable, with prolonged tensions posing a greater risk to Romania's economy due to its high transmission rate of energy price shocks.