Poland's NBP maintains hawkish stance on inflation risks

Poland's central bank, the NBP, maintained a hawkish stance during its recent press conference. Governor Glapinski emphasized inflation risks, particularly from administered prices, and projected that inflation will not reach the target of 2.5% until 2027, later than previously expected. The NBP highlighted various inflation risks, including wage growth, fiscal policy, and external factors like the war in Ukraine. Glapinski noted that the current inflation is driven by both high core inflation and administered prices. In contrast, some analysts predict a different inflation trajectory, suggesting that energy prices may not rise significantly after the price cap is lifted. They expect inflation to be around 3.6% by the end of 2025, rather than the NBP's estimate of 5%.