OpenAI's $614B compute commitments may not hit $750B target

OpenAI’s AI computing commitments could total $614 billion in infrastructure spending through 2030, below the widely cited $750 billion, according to Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler, who sees limited immediate risk for major cloud providers. The estimate assumes all identified contracts proceed, though delays, cancellations, and flexible hardware purchases could reduce payments. Annual spending may peak at $184 billion in 2031, with costs rising gradually as data centers become operational, making headline commitments an unreliable measure of near-term cash needs. OpenAI reached nearly $50 billion in annualized revenue in September, growing 77% year over year, which could help fund expansion. Oracle has about $300 billion in contracted capacity, Microsoft $250 billion, Amazon $138 billion, and CoreWeave up to $22.4 billion, though future demand for specialized rentals remains uncertain.