Oil market shows fresh glut signs as high prices curb demand

The global oil market is showing signs of returning to surplus as high prices curb demand, despite ongoing Middle East supply disruptions from the Iran war, analysts and traders said on Friday. JP Morgan estimated supply exceeded consumption by 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October, while Goldman Sachs noted global stocks did not decline in that period. Both banks cited recovering Gulf flows and weaker demand. Middle East crude exports averaged 14 million barrels per day in October, about 86% of pre-war levels, though refined product exports lagged at half of normal volumes. Brent swaps indicate short-term oversupply, though futures remain in backwardation.