Moody's and S&P Global navigate AI risks and a 2026 refinancing boom

Moody's is considered safer from AI risks due to legally mandated models, with a high retention rate suggesting AI fears may be overblown. The core AI threat is data commoditization, but Moody's and S&P Global offer verified, accountable data, which AI cannot yet replicate. A significant debt refinancing wall is expected in 2026. S&P Global's spin-off of its Mobility division introduces uncertainty, while Moody's exceptional profit margins are driven by low marginal costs, limited price competition, and mandatory demand for debt ratings.