Lula's campaign promises could cost Brazil R$40 billion, IFI warns

Brazil's Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) estimates that campaign promises made by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could create an unbudgeted fiscal impact of R$40 billion for 2026 and 2027. The calculation covers changes to the Bolsa Família program, revenue losses from betting regulations, and a benefits package for individual microentrepreneurs. The IFI also projects a primary deficit of 0.5% of GDP this year. The report warns that a fiscal adjustment is needed to stabilize public debt, noting a required primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP. It excludes other proposals like university student aid and free weekend public transit.