How Germany calculates its heat death toll

Germany's Robert Koch Institute estimates around 11,900 heat-related deaths occurred in 2026 as of August 7, already exceeding every full-year total since 2016. The figures stem from a statistical model comparing actual reported deaths with expected deaths under cooler conditions (weekly average up to 20°C); the difference indicates excess mortality. About 9,600 deaths are attributed to the June 22–28 heat week alone. Experts call the methodology robust but conservative; victims typically die from combinations of heat and pre-existing illnesses, mostly older adults. Actual figures may be 35–50 percent higher than weekly estimates.