Global carbon emissions may have peaked in 2026, but only time will tell

A new report suggests global carbon emissions may have peaked in 2026, potentially declining for the first time, though experts caution it could take years to confirm this isn't a temporary blip caused by conflicts and energy prices. The Global Carbon Project projects fossil fuel emissions will fall slightly from 38.4 gigatonnes in 2025 to 38.2 Gt this year, a 0.4% decrease. Key factors include the US-Iran war and Ukraine conflict driving oil prices to US$100 a barrel, accelerating electric vehicle adoption, and China's coal use dropping below 50% of its electricity mix. Historical precedents show emissions have fallen during past crises like the 1970s oil shocks, Soviet collapse, 2008 financial crisis, and COVID pandemic, only to rebound higher afterward. The long-term outlook depends on sustained policy actions, as oceans and forests that absorb carbon are increasingly stressed by climate change.