El Niño to delay retail price shocks until late 2027

El Niño has begun, but its effect on grocery prices is expected to be delayed until late 2027. The weather phenomenon exacerbates existing fertilizer and energy cost shocks from Middle East conflict, leading to higher food retail prices 6-12 months after El Niño peaks. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, will face the most significant price surges due to reliance on food imports and high food spending.