Canada prepares for asymmetric war scenario against hypothetical U.S. invasion

Canada's government and military have developed a scenario model for an asymmetric war against a hypothetical U.S. invasion, a risk Prime Minister Mark Carney calls "extremely improbable" but has nonetheless studied as an extreme tail risk. The model acknowledges a conventional conflict would result in Canada's defeat within two to seven days, prompting proposals for a rapid doctrine shift toward insurgency and guerrilla warfare. This includes small autonomous cells of soldiers and civilians conducting harassment missions, ambushes, logistics sabotage, and using cheap drones or improvised explosive devices, drawing on tactics used by mujahedin and Taliban forces. Military chief General Jennie Carignan has discussed preparing a volunteer reserve force of up to 400,000 combatants and practicing dispersed operations, including strategic withdrawals from southern urban centers to pre-prepared, autonomous northern zones. The planning follows Trump's repeated remarks about Canada as a potential "51st state" and a published image of him with a U.S. flag covering North America, though recent polls show 69% of Americans oppose a war with Iran, suggesting broader public reluctance to new conflicts.