Apophis asteroid faces space debris collision risk in 2029 flyby

On April 13, 2029, the 370-meter asteroid Apophis will pass within 32,000 km of Earth, below geostationary orbit, and Italian scientists have assessed its collision risk with space debris. A collision with Earth is ruled out, but an impact with orbital junk is possible. Researchers Giulia Schettino and Alessandro Rossi from Italy's IFAC institute modeled 3,250 cataloged satellites, rocket stages, and debris fragments with apogees above 30,000 km. In worst-case scenarios, up to 70 objects could pass within 50 km of the asteroid, with minimum distances for some groups ranging from 4 to 29 km. These figures are not predictions, as the team deliberately tested extreme configurations, and the actual collision probability is considered virtually zero. However, uncataloged fragments smaller than 50 cm could still strike Apophis at 7.4 km/s, potentially creating craters or altering its rotation, which would complicate observations for planned ESA RAMSES and NASA OSIRIS-APEX missions.