AI method forecasts once-in-a-millennium heat waves accurately

Researchers have developed a new hybrid method combining AI with traditional physics-based models to forecast rare, once-in-a-millennium weather events like extreme heat waves more efficiently and accurately. The method, called AI+RES, uses AI to enhance rare event sampling, allowing traditional climate models to focus on conditions most likely to produce short-duration extremes. Testing showed it achieved nearly identical results using one-hundredth the simulations. The team hopes to scale the approach for real-world use, potentially helping governments plan for climate adaptation by predicting the frequency of severe storms and heat waves at regional scales.