The Case for a Stalemate With Iran

Six months into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, the conflict has settled into a stalemate characterized by a mutual blockade of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with neither side able to achieve a clear victory. Washington views this ongoing blockade as the least bad option, as it avoids defeat and escalation while gradually weakening Iran's economy, which has seen inflation exceed 80 percent and its oil exports largely cut off. The United States can absorb the costs better due to its own ample oil supplies. The main risk is Iranian escalation, potentially through mining the strait or attacking Gulf infrastructure, which could force U.S. retaliation. Washington aims to maintain the blockade indefinitely, hoping economic pressure will eventually push Tehran to negotiate a compromise similar to a failed June memorandum of understanding.